NASCAR Betting Picks: 3 Props for Sunday’s Texas O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

NASCAR heads into the third 1.5-mile oval track this year, and the very first time all year we’ll see a repeat in the principles package and tire wear mix. Texas is a minimal tire wear similar to Las Vegas, as a result of its repave and reconfiguration.
As a result, this race at Texas should closely resemble the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway — another 1.5-mile low tire wear oval that utilized the aero duct bundle.
NASCAR Props Challenge Picks for Sunday’s Texas O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Read now Not only will I’m leaning heavily on Las Vegas, but we should also think of the races at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Auto Club Speedway, which were run under comparable, but not totally comparable circumstances. I’ll also use Texas data to judge track history as the 2017 repave.
There are 3 matchups that provide value heading into the weekend.
Kevin Harvick (+130) over Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch is the defending race winner at Texas along with the most popular driver on the circuit, which is driving Busch’s price on this one. But give me Harvick in Texas. Westgate has this at +130 if you’re in Las Vegas for the NCAA Tournament. In reality, I would still take down Harvick to +120. Looking at average flag speed in the three big ovals of Atlanta, Las Vegas and Auto Club, Harvick gets the speed, edging out Busch that comes in third. However, looking at Las Vegas alone, Harvick had the quickest flag typical rate while Busch came in third.

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